- - Rams-Bears NFL divisional playoff preview: Will Caleb Williams need another comeback vs. Matthew Stafford?

Jack BaerJanuary 16, 2026 at 9:25 AM

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The Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears both emerged from thrillers in the NFL wild-card round. Now, they form one of the playoffs' most intriguing matchups, between an upstart Bears team riding the high of their first playoff win since the 2010 season and the perennially contending Rams.

The Bears are the home team, but it was the Rams who posted the better record during the regular season. They just had the misfortune of playing in the snake pit that is the NFC West, where three different teams finished at least 12-5.

This year's Rams feature the MVP favorite in Matthew Stafford, the NFL receptions leader in Puka Nacua and a defense with two Pro Bowl pass-rushers in Byron Young and Jared Verse. They will face a Bears team riding the breakout of Caleb Williams and enjoying the immediate success of first-year head coach Ben Johnson.

The game is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC. The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM.

What happened last week?

The Bears won via a cathartic comeback against the Green Bay Packers, while the Rams survived an upset bid from the Carolina Panthers.

Chicago entered the fourth quarter of its wild-round game trailing 21-6. It felt like a familiar script for the fanbase, with months of promise wiped out by a Packers team simply executing better. Then Williams went off book.

Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to stun Green Bay, with Williams leading three lengthy touchdown drives to finish the game. It clearly meant a lot to the team.

As for the Rams, they went toe-to-toe with an overachieving Panthers team playing with the kind of house money you get when you make the playoffs with an 8-9 regular season record. Los Angeles was clearly the better team early, but the Panthers landed two big punches in the second quarter to activate the upset alerts.

The Rams ultimately held on, primarily thanks to a clutch performance from Stafford. However, the almost certainly can't afford to struggle like they did last weekend against a team like the Bears.

Chicago weather forecast for Rams-Bears

The Bears and Rams are projected to see a high of 19 degrees on Sunday at Soldier Field, which could matter when one of those teams plays in Los Angeles. The Rams haven't played in conditions anywhere close to that this season.

Will that matter? You never want to overrate the effect of weather on professional football players, but we'll see how the cold affects the NFL's most prolific passing offense, which the Rams have. However, Stafford also posted 324 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in last year's season-ending playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, also played under freezing conditions.

Health update

Stafford sustained a sprain in his right index finger in the win over the Panthers, but managed to stay in the game and said later that he is "good to go" for the Bears game. That bore out on the practice report this week, with Stafford a full participant for Wednesday's walkthrough.

The only L.A. players who weren't listed as full participants Wednesday were nose tackle Poona Ford (limited with an elbow injury), right guard Kevin Dotson (limited with an ankle injury) and cornerback Darious Williams (DNP due to personal reasons). All three of those players are starters, and Dotson is attempting to come back after a month missed.

The Bears had their two most productive wide receivers, DJ Moore (knee) and Rome Odunze (foot), both limited Wednesday. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin was also limited with a back injury and cornerback Nick McCloud was a non-participant with a groin injury.

Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson was a full participant after sitting out the Packers game last weekend with a concussion.

The head coaches

Following John Harbaugh's ouster from the Baltimore Ravens and Mike Tomlin's exit from the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Rams' Sean McVay is suddenly tied for the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL. It's been a good tenure so far.

McVay has a 9-5 career record in the postseason and a Super Bowl ring from the 2021 season. As long as he has a quarterback like Stafford and enough talent, you know he's going to have a dangerous offense. He's backed up by defensive coordinator Chris Shula, who has done good enough work this season that he's received requests to interview for four different NFL head coaching jobs.

On the other end is Ben Johnson, who enjoyed a win in his first playoff game as head coach last season. Before his Bears hire, Johnson spent three seasons as offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions, who scored at least 24 points in the four playoff games they had him calling plays.

Key player for the Rams

The Rams' defensive front is going to have its hands full with Williams, and no player will have more of a burden than Verse.

Getting to Williams is one thing, and it's doable considering he is second in the NFL in time to throw at 3.24 seconds, per Pro Football Focus. The other side of the coin is containing him. He ranks fifth in the NFL in scramble yards with 382, per PFF. Verse is the keystone of the Rams' front seven, and will be key to limiting Williams' damage.

Key player for the Bears

Since Dec. 1, Nacua has averaged 15.4 targets and 134.5 receiving yards per game. Outside of starting running back Kyren Williams, no other Rams player comes within 1,000 yards from scrimmage of him. So the Bears' top cornerback is going to be pretty important.

Enter Jaylon Johnson. The Bears corner had an up-and-down day against the Packers and suddenly has what might be the toughest assignment in the league this weekend. If Stafford and Nacua aren't fazed by the cold, how Johnson performs when matched up with Nacua could decide the game.

Betting market watch

The Rams have been oddsmakers' top power-rated team for much of the season, which is reflected in this line. Los Angeles opened as a 4- or 4.5-point favorite at the Bears, but respected money has pushed that down to -3.5. The weather will be a factor, with potential snow and wind, which has caused the total to drop from 51.5 to 48.5. The Rams weren't particularly impressive in their win over the Panthers last week, while we're not sure if we'll get the first-half or second-half version of the Bears. If it's the second-half version, Chicago can certainly win this game; if it's the team that went down 21-3 to Green Bay, it could be a long, cold night at Soldier Field for Bears fans. — Ben Fawkes

Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.

Prediction

The Bears are at home and you would imagine better equipped to navigate the temperature. However, the Rams have been the better team all season, with the kind of defensive front that can contain Caleb Williams. The Bears have made a season of thrilling comeback wins, but the Rams have more experience in these situations and should be able to hold on, assuming Stafford is healthy and doesn't freeze solid.

Rams 17, Bears 10

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Source: “AOL Sports”