Lions playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Detroit to win NFC North
- - Lions playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Detroit to win NFC North
Jacob Camenker, USA TODAYDecember 21, 2025 at 8:31 PM
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Lions playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Detroit to win NFC North
The Detroit Lions were the NFC's No. 1 seed in 2024 but find themselves on the outside looking in for the 2025 NFL playoff picture.
The Lions enter their Week 16 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers as the No. 8 seed in the NFC playoff race. Detroit has a solid 8-6 record, but they remain behind both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers in the NFC North race.
The Lions are a major long shot to win the NFC North, but they also have a path into the postseason as a wild card. To earn either honor, Detroit will need to quickly rack up some wins and get help to make up ground on its rivals.
Here's a look at the Lions' playoff chances entering Week 16 and where they fall in the overall NFL playoff picture.
makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.
" style=padding-bottom:56%>Week 1: Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.
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Week 1: Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.
">Week 1: Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.
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1 / 4Best images of the 2025 NFL season
Week 1: Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.
Lions playoff chances
The Lions have an estimated 29% chance to make the playoffs, according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats. Their odds can improve to 41% with a victory while they would slip to 6% with a loss.
Detroit's most likely path into the postseason would be as a wild card. They likely need to catch the Green Bay Packers in the NFC standings to make it into the playoffs.
Lions playoff odds
The Lions have +190 odds to make the postseason, per odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. That gives them a 34.5% implied probability to make the playoffs.
Lions playoff scenarios
The Lions do not have any clinching scenarios or any elimination scenarios in Week 16. However, moving forward, their easiest path will be to catch either the Bears or Packers in the NFC standings to sneak into the playoffs.
How can the Lions catch the Bears? The following would have to happen:
Lions WIN remaining three games AND Bears LOSE remaining two games.
And to catch the Packers, the Lions would need the following to occur:
Lions win final three games AND Packers lose at least one of the final two OR
Lions win two of three games AND Packers lose final two games.
The Lions could also potentially make it into the postseason if they can chase down the San Francisco 49ers over the final three weeks of the season. How would that work? The following would have to occur:
Lions WIN remaining three games AND 49ers LOSE remaining three games OR
Lions WIN remaining three games AND 49ers LOSE two games AND tie one.
The Lions are only two games back of the 49ers entering Week 16, but will need to finish ahead of them in the NFC standings to make the playoffs. San Francisco is guaranteed to have a better conference record than Detroit, which is the tiebreaker used if the two clubs finish with the same record.
No matter how you slice it, the Lions cannot make it into the postseason without winning multiple games down the stretch.
NFC North standings
The Lions enter their Week 16 game against the in third place in the NFC North. They will remain there regardless of the result of their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below is a look at the pecking order within the division:
Chicago Bears (11-4)
Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
Detroit Lions (8-6)
Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
The Bears' win over the Packers means Detroit can only catch Chicago in the standings if the Lions win out and the Bears lose their final two games.
Meanwhile, the Lions can move just a half-game back of the Packers in NFL Week 16 with a win over the Steelers. Catching Green Bay would represent Detroit's easiest path to a playoff spot, though the team would need help to make up ground on its divisional rival.
Lions remaining schedule
The Lions have the 11th-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL entering their Week 16 game, according to Tankathon. Detroit's final two games will be divisional road matchups against the Vikings and Bears.
Below is a full look at Detroit's schedule:
Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
Week 18: at Chicago Bears (11-4)
Bears remaining schedule
The Bears can clinch the NFC North with a win in one of their last two games. That won't be an easy task, however, as Chicago is playing a couple of teams who are in the thick of the NFC playoff race to close the season.
Below is a look at the Bears' remaining opponents:
Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (8-6)
Packers remaining schedule
Neither of the Packers' two remaining opponents has a winning record entering Week 16. Below is a look at Green Bay's schedule over the season's final two weeks:
Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Week 18: at Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
NFL playoff picture Week 16AFC -
Denver Broncos (12-2, AFC West leaders)*
New England Patriots (11-3, AFC East leaders)
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, AFC South leaders)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, AFC North leaders)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4, wild card No. 1)
Buffalo Bills (10-4, wild card No. 2)
Houston Texans (9-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
NFC -
Seattle Seahawks (12-3, NFC West leaders)*
Chicago Bears (11-4, NFC North leaders)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, NFC East winners)*
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, NFC South leaders)
Los Angeles Rams (11-4, wild card No. 1)*
San Francisco 49ers (10-4, wild card No. 2)
Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-6), Carolina Panthers (7-7), Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Lions playoff chances: Scenarios, odds for Detroit to make postseason
Source: “AOL Sports”
